Flood message issued January 8, 2026

A yellow graphic indicating a Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook and Water Safety flood message has been issued.

Snowmelt and additional rainfall to cause elevated water levels

Warm temperatures and additional rainfall tonight (Thursday, January 8, 2026) are expected to increase water levels across the Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) watershed area. Temperatures are forecasted to remain above freezing overnight tonight, reaching as high as 12° Celsius tomorrow afternoon (January 9, 2026), accelerating snowmelt. An additional 10 to 15 millimetres (mm) of rainfall tonight will further add to already rising water levels.

A snow survey conducted by ABCA staff on Monday, January 5, 2026 found snow water equivalent values ranged from 15 to 46 mm across the watershed. Since that time, warm temperatures and 10 to 25 mm of rainfall have resulted in partial snowmelt. With additional rainfall and temperatures expected to remain positive, further snowmelt and runoff is anticipated.

Current forecasts and models indicate that water levels and flows are expected to begin to peak tomorrow, with the largest rivers peaking Saturday. At this time, rainfall forecasts of 5 mm for Saturday are not expected to add to water levels, and cooler temperatures on Saturday night will help to slow runoff.

Significant flooding is not expected at this time, with streamflow models predicting that any flooding will be limited to low-lying floodplain areas. Ice jams are not anticipated due to negligible ice cover in the watershed’s rivers.

Residents are advised to exercise caution near creeks and rivers and to keep children and pets well away from all waterways. Slippery, snow-covered or drifted streambanks, and fast-moving, cold water can pose serious safety hazards. Any ice remaining on waterbodies should be considered unsafe. 

This message will remain in effect until 12:00 p.m. Monday, January 12, 2026, unless otherwise updated. The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.