Flood message issued on February 17, 2026

A yellow graphic indicating a Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook and Water Safety flood message has been issued.

Warm air and rain may result in minor flooding 

Risk of ice jams; Watershed residents are reminded to stay away from waterways.

Daytime high temperatures above freezing have resulted in the ripening of the snowpack. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue through the week, with a forecast of 15-25 millimetres (mm) of rain across the Ausable Bayfield watershed area beginning early tomorrow morning (Wednesday, February 18, 2026) and lasting into the afternoon.

Snow survey data collected on February 16, 2026 shows that the water equivalent in the snowpack ranges between 50-75 mm, with capacity to absorb some rain. At this time, there is still some uncertainty in both how much warm air will push into the area, and the track of the heaviest rain.

Actual observed temperatures and rainfall over the next several days will determine the volume of runoff and how much of the snowpack melts. With saturated soils, a quick runoff is expected.

Based on the most current weather forecasts, river flow models are suggesting that minor flooding in the low-lying undeveloped flood plain areas is likely. This may impact some secondary roads that are traditionally flood prone.

This cold winter has led to the formation of thick ice on local streams and rivers, which could result in ice jams. Historically, ice jam flooding potential is highest in the lower Ausable River between Ailsa Craig and Port Franks, but ice jams have also been observed in the Bayfield River. In addition to flooding impacts, structures located in, or adjacent to, the water are vulnerable to damage from ice. 

Residents are reminded to use caution near all watercourses as waters will be fast-moving and higher than normal. Slippery, snow-covered and unstable streambanks and extremely cold water temperatures will create additional hazards. Municipal staff should continue to monitor local drainage problem areas where water is ponding or where snow conditions may have covered catch basins.

All ice should be considered unsafe.

This message will remain in effect until 12:00 p.m. noon on Monday, February 23, 2026, unless otherwise updated. The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.