Flood message issued
Date of issue: Wednesday, April 15, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. noon
20-30 millimetres (mm) of rain overnight, and additional 25 mm expected through Thursday.
A risk of isolated thunderstorms may result in higher rainfall totals, and higher water levels.
Following a few weather systems earlier this week the Ausable Bayfield watershed area is saturated, and water levels have begun to respond accordingly. There are additional forecasts of up to 15 millimetres (mm) of rain this afternoon (Wednesday, April 15, 2026) and between 15 and 20 mm tonight and tomorrow.
There are, however, forecasts of isolated thunderstorms. If these convective events produce higher rainfall amounts on saturated soils, with limited capacity to absorb additional precipitation, then a quick runoff and more significant flooding is possible.
Based on current forecasts, flood prediction models indicate that water levels are expected to rise but remain at or near bank-full conditions. However, if forecasted rainfall amounts increase, specifically where localized thunderstorms develop, there is the potential for water levels to rise beyond bank-full, which could lead to minor, localized flooding within traditional flood plain areas.
Residents are reminded to use caution near all watercourses as waters will be fast-moving and higher than normal. Slippery, unstable streambanks create additional hazards.
Municipal staff should continue to monitor local drainage problem areas where water is prone to ponding.
This message will remain in effect until 12:00 p.m. noon on Monday, April 20, 2026, unless otherwise updated. Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.